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Moore’s law: Repeal or renewal?

Moore’s law: Repeal or renewal?
Source: McKinsey & Company

The global semiconductor industry has recorded impressive achievements since 1965, when Intel cofounder Gordon Moore published the observation that would become the industry’s touchstone. Moore’s law states that the number of transistors on integrated circuits doubles every two years, and for the past four decades it has set the pace for progress in the semiconductor industry. The positive by-products of the constant scaling down that Moore’s law predicts include simultaneous cost declines, made possible by fitting more transistors per area onto silicon chips, and performance increases with regard to speed, compactness, and power consumption. As a result, semiconductor-enabled products today play integral roles in virtually every aspect of modern life.

In this article, we will examine the technologies that aim to extend the life of Moore’s law and model their impact on four likely future scenarios for the industry. Obviously, there are many factors in play, but we believe the economics of continued advances in performance could eventually disrupt the companies competing in the business today.

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